Shifting Sands: Geopolitical Game of Power and the Future of Africa
Europe is set to counterbalance the burgeoning sway of the Kremlin in Africa, following the unsuccessful insurrection by the Wagner group, casting a shadow over its forthcoming role in the region.
The private militia under Yevgeny Prigozhin’s command has provided military training and waged wars against rebels on behalf of autocratic governments, since their foothold in Africa took root a few years ago. Their ambiguous status, coupled with a notorious propensity for violence, has facilitated Russia’s pursuit of its geopolitical agenda at a paltry expense, whilst preserving a veneer of plausible disavowal. The Wagner group’s footprints in Africa are particularly noticeable in Libya, the Central African Republic (CAR), and Mali.
Birgitte Markussen, the delegate of the European Union to the African Union, voiced that the precarious future of Wagner represents a chance for European nations to rekindle their associations with countries like Mali, especially if Prigozhin finds himself estranged in Belarus, distant from his legionnaires. “A mere few days have elapsed and explorations are underway, yet we’ve already begun envisaging the fallout of Wagner’s debilitation,” she confided to The Times. “This will inevitably strain the group in the territories they’ve ensconced themselves in. Their offerings are now questionable.”
Having entered the CAR in 2018, Wagner assisted President Faustin-Archange Touadéra in thwarting a rebel onslaught aimed at the capital, Bangui. In return, Touadéra bequeathed the group with timber rights and dominion over prosperous gold and diamond mines. In the winter of 2021, the mercenaries established a stronghold in Mali, securing a pact to counteract Islamist radicals on behalf of the country’s junta, which had seized power through a coup a few months prior. In both countries, Wagner’s soldiers have been implicated in accusations of human rights violations, encompassing torture, sexual assault, and civilian massacres.
“A chance to reassert their influence is how EU member states view this,” a European security official disclosed. He elaborated that the continent’s relationships with Russia depended on a consistent stream of military equipment to its African allies, facilitated via Wagner. “Without Wagner, there is no conduit for delivery, and sans delivery, why persist in this collaboration?”
However, commentators believe Wagner’s role in Africa is too vital for Russia to jeopardize. “Wagner will undergo a rebranding, and the operations will endure, as Africa was always amongst Russia’s priorities. This includes not only support for the war but also the indirect financial liabilities Russia has shouldered due to the strife,” posited Joana de Deus Pereira from the Royal United Services Institute think tank.
She added, “There’s a comprehensive strategy involving businesses linked to Prigozhin and the Russian state operating in Africa. It includes not only security operations but also a full-fledged machinery linking African influencers paid by Prigozhin to foster Russia’s image in Africa. This robust ecosystem will continue to proliferate, albeit under a different moniker.”
Wagner’s most expansive and profitable venture resides in Libya, where approximately 1,400 of its troops have served as mercenaries for the Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar since 2018. Wagner’s influence is also felt in Sudan, where it has a stronghold over a vast area dedicated to gold mining.
These endeavours have consolidated Russia’s backing at the United Nations, where it has faced disapprobation for its war in Ukraine. African countries where Wagner is active, including the CAR and Mali, have rallied behind Russia during crucial votes. In quid pro quo fashion, Russia has provided them a shield at the UN Security Council, brandishing its veto power.
“The current turbulence generates transient confusion, which could pose significant disruptions for the nations employing Wagner,” cautioned Cameron Hudson, an ex-CIA staff member. “This creates a window of opportunity for the West to accentuate that this group is not a purveyor of stability or certainty, and it would be prudent for Washington to promulgate this assertion presently.
On Tuesday, the United States levied sanctions on mining firms associated with Prigozhin in the CAR, articulating that it bore no connection to Wagner’s insurrection. The spokesperson for President Putin underscored that Wagner’s commercial pursuits in Africa had “nothing to do” with the Kremlin.
Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister, affirmed that Wagner’s revolt would have no repercussions on its functions in the CAR and Mali, and that the mercenary group’s “instructors” would persist. He further contested that there was an absence of signals indicating African countries reassessing their affiliations with Moscow.
Both the CAR and Mali have recently seen the departure of French troops, the former colonial power and traditional guarantor of security, with whom ties had soured. Lavrov accused France of leaving the two countries to fend off Islamist extremists. UN peacekeeping forces are set to exit Mali by the year’s end.
The failed Wagner coup could prompt African presidents, who have either sought the group’s security services or contemplated doing so, to rethink their tactics. “This will indeed spark questions about the endurance and influence of Russia,” noted Alex Vines, an Africa analyst at Chatham House. “A military faction causing tumult in its home country does not offer an attractive proposition for African governments.”
However, a senior security official from the African Union revealed that the administrations of the CAR and Mali are “less apprehensive than the West” regarding the implications of the Wagner insurrection.
Parallel to Ukraine, where Putin would be loath to lose Wagner as a force in combat, he would be reluctant to surrender the geopolitical advantage granted by Prigozhin’s soldiers in Africa. Some commentators propose that the mercenary group could simply undergo a rebranding under a new nomenclature or new leadership.
Senior officials from the Russian Foreign Ministry have allegedly reassured CAR President Touadéra, whose bodyguards include Wagner fighters, that the failed coup will not impede Russia’s activities in Africa, according to The Wall Street Journal. Flight data implies that Russian government and military aircraft have flown to the CAR and Mali.
Western officials are also mulling over the prospect of Prigozhin managing Wagner’s African operations from Belarus. Fears emerge that if the group suspends its activities in Ukraine, tens of thousands of battle-seasoned Wagner fighters might inundate the continent, further destabilizing regions already precariously balanced. “What does this imply for our side and, particularly, for Africa?” queried the European security official. “The events of the past weekend demonstrate that nothing can be anticipated.”
Prigozhin’s business jet, believed to have ferried him to Belarus on Tuesday morning, returned to Moscow later the same day. His presence on the flight is yet unconfirmed. Unverified rumours suggest that he is presently in Moscow.
This considerable transformation in Africa’s political landscape denotes a remarkable shift in the continent’s global alliances, characterised by the manoeuvring of power amongst established and emergent players on the global stage. The fate of Wagner’s operations across Africa is shrouded in uncertainty, as is the position of the Kremlin in this volatile equation. With international diplomatic tensions at a peak, it becomes imperative to consider the broader implications of these developments for the strategic interests of nations within and outside of Africa.
The resulting conundrum now necessitates a recalibration of global geopolitics, especially when the continents traditional powerhouses seem to be losing ground. From the European Union to the United States, these powers will need to reassess their strategies in the face of this changing dynamic, where the power calculus appears to be shifting dramatically. On the other hand, the unfolding of these events provides opportunities for African nations themselves to reconsider their alliances and explore new diplomatic avenues.
In the end, as political constellations realign, and the old order creaks under the weight of change, it is the African nations that find themselves at the nexus of this complex web of geopolitics. The decisions they make in the coming months will have far-reaching implications, not just for their own futures, but for the balance of power in the world at large.
Regardless of the predictions and estimations, it is evident that this intricate saga, pitting nation against nation and alliances against interests, will shape the future course of Africa’s position in the global geopolitical landscape. This chapter is far from closed, and it will undeniably continue to enthrall observers worldwide, as they watch these unprecedented shifts in power and influence unfold.
While geopolitical power dynamics sway and the waves of change sweep the continent, the rippling effects of these events echo throughout global political theatre. Each country, each leader, finds themselves navigating the rough seas of international politics, their decisions carrying significant weight in the shifting global landscape.
In the grand theatre of international diplomacy, the choices made by these African nations are not just domestic considerations but key elements that shape the global order. The shadows of intrigue continue to extend as each development unfurls, pulling more players into the game and further complicating the delicate balance of power.
Russia, with the Wagner group as a key pawn in its strategic game, and the West, standing at a crossroads, must tread carefully. These geopolitical developments are not isolated incidents but part of a larger narrative that will significantly shape the global socio-political landscape in the coming years.
The mosaic of political alliances, covert operations, and diplomatic chess games is a testament to the unpredictable nature of international politics. As the threads of this grand narrative unravel, the global community watches with bated breath, awaiting the next move in this high-stakes game.
The future is in flux, with a multitude of possibilities unfolding in the shadow of uncertainty. The one thing that remains certain is that the decisions made today will have a lasting impact on the geopolitical future of not only Africa but also the world. The delicate dance of diplomacy continues, as the world watches on, awaiting the next development in this unfolding geopolitical drama.
As nations around the globe monitor the unfolding narrative, the implications for foreign policy and international relations become increasingly significant. This dramatic shift in the political landscape is not merely a regional concern; it’s a global one, a testament to the interconnected nature of our world today.
In conclusion, the saga of Prigozhin, Wagner, and their impact on Africa’s political landscape is a riveting tale of power, strategy, and geopolitical gamesmanship. It’s a complex web of manoeuvres and countermanoeuvres, alliances and betrayals, that continues to shape the destiny of nations and the course of global politics. As each chapter unfolds, the world watches and waits, anticipating the next twist in this enthralling narrative. The only certainty in this game of power is that nothing is certain, and everything is at stake.
Author: Jeremy Julius
Consultant, international policy expert, accompatban companies on their path to growth in highly developed markets. He collaborates with The Deeping for insights in the political/social area